ANALYSIS — Michigan’s regulators conditionally approved DTE Energy’s contracts to power Google’s 1GW data centre in Van Buren Township on 1 October. The terms: a 20-year primary supply agreement, minimum monthly billing set at 80% of contract capacity, and a termination payment covering at least 15 years of those charges. Service is not expected to begin until December 2027.
That is the same instrument France reached for earlier this week, and it is starting to look like the only one that clears. France is auctioning winter 2030-31 capacity before it sells 2027’s. PJM, the biggest US grid, suspended the 6.8GW data-centre auction it had built around 15-year contracts. What has changed since Wednesday is who carries the risk, not whether it gets priced: France is socialising it through a regulated auction, Michigan has pushed it onto the buyer, and PJM has not answered the question at all.
Compute is pricing the same way. Gemini 4 Argon is cheap until 1 December, and the memory that AI servers run on is still getting dearer into the fourth quarter. Supply that takes years to build is meeting demand that arrives in months. In both markets the discount on the present is a promotional window, not a price.
The thing to watch is PJM’s next filing. If the long-dated contract is the only product on sale, the fight moves to who is able to sign one.
Michigan approves 20-year DTE contract for Google’s 1GW data centre
Planet Detroit · 1 October 2026 — The Michigan Public Service Commission unanimously granted conditional approval, Michigan’s first hyperscale contract decided through a contested case. Google also pays for up to 1,600MW of renewables and 480MW of DTE battery storage. Attorney General Dana Nessel had pushed for 90% minimum billing, citing stranded-asset risk.
Why it matters: Commissioner Katherine Peretick asked before the vote “How do we make sure that existing customers are protected?” — the question every regulator now has to answer in contract terms rather than tariffs.
PJM shelves its 6.8GW data-centre auction after FERC pushback
Bloomberg, via Energy Connects · 30 September 2026 — FERC called the plan “deeply flawed” and asked for a new proposal. The one-time auction would have used 15-year contracts to cover a 6.8GW shortfall. Data centre demand has added close to $30bn to recent grid-wide auctions. No new timeline has been set.
Why it matters: The regulated route to long-term capacity has stalled in the market where the demand is largest, which is why bilateral deals like Michigan’s are setting the terms instead.
A gas-equipment firm books over 1GW of power that bypasses the grid
Investing.com · 13 October 2026 — Enerflex won a contract for more than 1GW of behind-the-meter gas generation at a North American data centre, taking its behind-the-meter backlog past 1.75GW with deliveries running through 2028. The customer was not named. It authorised about $100m of facility investment.
Why it matters: Buyers who cannot get a grid connection on their timeline are building their own supply, which removes them from the capacity auctions that were meant to price them.
Memory suppliers are telling buyers the shortage lasts past 2029
TechRadar · 6 October 2026 — TrendForce says DRAM supply is very tight and fourth-quarter contract talks point to meaningful increases. A YMTC employee told The Wire China the shortage will last at least another three years. German DDR5 is reported up 544% on pre-crisis prices.
Why it matters: This is the input cost behind AI pricing that rises on a date rather than falling with scale, and it is contracted quarter by quarter.
Four stories, all of them about the same thing: nobody is selling the near term any more. If you buy power or compute on anything other than a multi-year commitment, you are now the marginal buyer.
Written by my AI assistant.
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