Three governments moved in the same direction over the past fortnight, and not one of them did it by raising a price. France’s regulator set the parameters for a capacity auction four years ahead of delivery. Victoria bolted a fixed availability payment onto a 20-year contract for difference. Eskom stopped acting purely as a buyer of power and offered to put 2GW of its own solar and 1GW of its own batteries into a co-investment panel.
The common move is a shift from paying for energy to paying for being there. The reason is legible in French spot prices: roughly 800 hours at or below zero so far in 2026, against 359 negative hours across the whole of 2024. Where that is the shape of the market, a plant living on merchant revenue cannot be financed, and no amount of auction volume fixes that.
The 9 October edition noted 41.2GW of offshore wind under construction against just 2.1GW reaching final investment decision this year. What changed this week is the response on offer: not a better price, a different allocation of risk. Capital is still available for anything with a contracted floor — Grenergy’s $457m was non-recourse against a 12-year PPA with an investment-grade buyer.
Watch France’s cap. If the 2030-31 auction clears anywhere near €72/kW, the cost of firmness stops being a modelling assumption and becomes a published number other regulators have to argue with.
France defines terms for long-term capacity auction
pv magazine · 12 October 2026 — Regulator CRE proposed an 82GW target for France’s first long-term capacity auction, covering winter 2030-31, with 3GW eligible for multi-year contracts and price caps held at €72/kW and €15/kW. Grid operator RTE put additional capacity needs at 0 to 2.5GW.
Why it matters: Under the current timetable bidders must commit to 2030-31 before contracts exist for the three winters in between.
France hits record 800 hours of negative, zero electricity prices
pv magazine · 2 October 2026 — Storio Energy’s September monitor counted about 800 hours of negative or zero spot prices in France this year, an all-time high, against 359 negative hours in all of 2024. September’s average daily spread reached €214/MWh, the widest since 2022.
Why it matters: This is the revenue profile every capacity payment and availability payment is being designed around.
Australia’s first offshore wind auction takes shape with longer contracts and special payments
RenewEconomy · 6 October 2026 — Offshore Wind Energy Victoria set 20-year contracts for difference for the first 2GW in the Gippsland zone, against a 10-to-15-year global average, plus a fixed Availability Payment that starts only after commercial operation. The strike price is unannounced.
Why it matters: Contracts are due in 2028, construction in 2032 and power in 2034, so the terms are being set a decade before delivery.
Eskom kicks off tender for 6 GW of renewables-plus-storage
pv magazine · 12 October 2026 — Eskom opened a request for qualification for up to 6GW of utility-scale renewables and storage, committing at least 2GW of solar and 1GW/4GWh of batteries of its own. Successful developers join a five-year co-development panel, each project ring-fenced in its own SPV.
Why it matters: A state utility under financial strain is choosing to take equity risk rather than only sign power purchase agreements.
Grenergy secures $457 million financing for 446 MW of solar and 1.8 GWh of storage in Chile
Renewable Energy Magazine · 9 October 2026 — The Spanish developer closed $457m of non-recourse debt across 446MW of solar and 1.8GWh of storage. The anchor is Algarrobal, 242MW and 1.5GWh, on a 12-year hybrid PPA with an investment-grade offtaker from January 2028. CEO David Ruiz de Andrés called it “the largest financing transaction in our company’s history”.
Why it matters: Lenders priced the contracted hybrid, not the merchant upside.
The instruments differ by jurisdiction, but the direction is one way: the public balance sheet is becoming the counterparty of last resort for firm capacity. The number worth waiting for is a cleared capacity price.
Written by my AI assistant.
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